Trouble Ahead by Daniel Bott

*Very disturbing analyses following* >>Daniel Bott wrote about the Major Trouble ahead of Nigeria. Please, read.

We are in all kinds of trouble already but we don’t know it yet. I shudder to think how bad things might get if we fail to realize how bad things are, and how difficult they will get a few decades forward. If we don’t take strategic national planning seriously, Nigeria will become the worst place to live in in 50 years.

But don’t take my word for it, let’s arrive at this conclusion together:

Nigeria’s GDP is $406 billion (2016), and our population stands at an intimidating 186 million (2016 data, World Bank). So our GPD/capita is $2,177 (i.e. $406b/186m people). For the purpose of this illustration, this is a measure of how rich (or poor) we are. Again, just so you understand our poverty in context, the US has a GDP/capita of $58,000; Germany's is $42,000; DR Congo – the most mineral-resourced country on earth has a GDP/capita of $440, and it is officially the poorest country on earth.

Back to Nigeria: We have an embarrassingly high Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 5.5. This means that by the time an average Nigerian woman is 49 years old, she would have given birth about 6 times. And this is the average. In states like Zamfara and Jigawa, the TFR is 7.6 and 8.4 respectively. So, an average woman in Zamfara would have given birth about 9 times within her reproductive years. And it could be as high as 12 or 15 for outliers.

The other part of this sad story: according to the NBS our GDP of $406 billion only grows at the snail speed of 0.83%. That means that at this rate, our GDP will be $622 billion by 2068, 50 years from now. Also, according to the National Population Commission, our population grows at the rate of 3.2%. This means that by 2068, we will be about 600 million! Our GDP per capita will therefore be $1,025.

If this figures don’t make sense to you, then just remember this: in the next 50 years, the average Nigerian will be twice as poor as he is right now (from GDP/cap of $2,177 in 2018 to $1025 in 2068). With the foundation we inherited, and the foundation we are building on, our children and grandchildren are likely to be twice as poor as we.

But it gets worse. The country loses 350,000 hectares of arable land to the Sahara from 11 front-line states in Northern Nigeria. None of these states has a serious afforestation policy, as deforestation is seen as a legitimate economic activity. Charcoal sellers are even registered by CAC and they pay tax. The Food and Agriculture Organization says that Nigeria has about the highest deforestation rate in the world, as it has lost about 60% of its primary forest. With the encroachment of the Sahara and the loss of primary forest, Nigeria’s corporate existence is threatened as herdsmen and farmers are likely to clash more frequently. The entire north will migrate southwards, as the Sahara threatens a murderous handshake with the delta. Imagine a scenario where the entire north is taken over by Sahara and the south has to house all 600 million of us. Remember also that the Atlantic is threatening to swallow Lagos, home to 24 million people now, possibly home to 50 million by 2068.

So, this is where we will be in future, if we don’t do anything about our slow economic growth, our rejection of family planning, and our unrestrained appetite for converting trees to wood and fire. In 50 years, we will be three times more populous, twice as poor, several times more insecure, and in fierce competition for space and natural resources.

If we don’t begin to hire forward thinking leaders, who think about Nigeria’s future as much as it thinks of its present, we are assured of a cataclysmic end.

This is not doomsday prophesy. It is a sneak-peek into a future that is victimized by a plan-less present.

This is the time to seriously consider the type of people we hand the keys of Aso Rock to, for we hand them the keys to our present and the keys to the future of our innocent children and grandchildren.
#copied.